Since everyone in the China blogosphere is giving their two cents about Google Buzz I’ll throw my hat into the ring, too. Here are my thoughts and the thoughts of some friends as discussed on….Google Buzz.
Damjan DeNoble - Did Google threaten to pull out of China partly because they anticipated that Google Buzz would lead to harmonization of Gmail? My Over/Under for how long Gmail continues to work in China is 50 days.
Matt S – Doubt that Google Buzz had much to do with it. I’m sure if they wanted they could offer a China-specific version of Gmail that had buzz stripped out. Think it’s likely still the principle of the thing (freedom of information) that’s driving the decision-making.Feb 11
Damjan DeNoble – Matt, can’t a brother do some conspiracy theorizing for fun? Must I be serious on all mediums of communication? C’mon, expand on this crazy theory with me.
Seriously though – 50 days for google buzz, max. Google groups is already down.Feb 11
Matt S – Nope, there’s a two-beer minimum before I lower the analytical deflector shields.
Groups has been down for awhile, but yeah, I really doubt it’ll even take them that long to cut Buzz off at the knees. Don’t think it’s possible from a technical point of view to just block Buzz (I’m not an engineer obviously, this is just a notion), so it’ll probably result in the blockage of Gmail in China.
Possible complicating factors/wild cards in all this are
1) the ongoing negotiations between Google and the ChiComs (figure that’s what I should call ‘em while I’m back in tierra americana) re: Google’s possible exit from the Chinese search market
2) how long it takes Buzz to make it onto the ChiComs’ radar. I figure they have to be watching Google very closely now, but I don’t know how long it will be before awareness of this new feature percolates its way up to people who actually make decisions.
I wonder if @Jimmy GXXXX knows anything about #2?
I LOVE that you can go back and edit your posts in this thing. A godsend.Feb 11
Damjan DeNoble – Random Thought: Did Google look at the fact that a bunch of self professed ‘smart’ people use their product and decide to create something where those people can sound off publicly on any topic that will show off that ‘smartness’ to all of their friends and acquaintances? This is absolutely the Prius of twitter clones.
Response: I’m no sure where you stand here – do you think that its possible to decouple buzz and mail, or do you think Gmail will get shut down because decoupling is impossible? I think like any software, it can be decoupled, I’m just not sure that Google is willing to do that for the PRC.
A third factor is how long it takes for Google Buzz to create enough buzz to attract attention. Though, if this is supposed to be included within your second point, I’ll just settle for being redundant.EditFeb 11
Matt S – “Random Thought: Did Google look at the fact that a bunch of self professed ‘smart’ people use their product and decide to create something where those people can sound off publicly on any topic that will show off that ‘smartness’ to all of their friends and acquaintances? This is absolutely the Prius of twitter clones.“
Well said, sir. When it comes to wasting time, this is like Facebook for smart/productive people. Except, unlike the Prius, this probably won’t crash and kill you.
I don’t really have a “stand” yet, per se. Just trying to chew through what’s going to happen here.
Some more factors to consider:
> PR flak the gov’t would take internationally for this move. Iran’s already getting some for their recent blockage of Gmail. Honestly, don’t think the gov’t really cares about this, esp. as they seem to be slipping into a triumphalist “China ascendant” mindset, as pointed out recently by @jfallows@gmail.com and your friend @dan@harrismoure.com over at CLB.
> More importantly, Gmail’s used by a significant slice of China’s technically-literate white collar upper-middle class. These people have seen all kinds of fun internet goodies taken away from them over the past few years, forcing them to use second-best options provided by either domestic Chinese firms or foreign firms that are willing to play by the Chinese gov’t's rules. Blocking Gmail would be the ultimate insult to a lot of these people. Losing Facebook is one thing. Losing access to your email is an electronic disaster of an entirely different order of magnitude. There would be blowback from these folks, a lot more than we’ve seen following any of the other blockages to date, I would hazard to say.Feb 11
Damjan DeNoble – I gotta get back to some things but three points.
1) When I say the Prius of Twitter clones, it’s somewhat of a backhand compliment. It’s not that this is for smart people – it’s that this is designed for people who really want other people to know they are smart.
2) This to me is a vast improvement over twitter’s and facebooks conversational abilities. It’s accessible to everyone I talk with anyway, and it’s long form. I am aware that this makes me the proud owner of an online Prius, but I’ve never been shy about being an online blow hard. Like Nestor Santana once told me “You’ve never lived until you’ve managed two blogs at the same time” .
3) Messing with the educated middle class is at the root of almost every revolution. China knows this. I predict a warning before any gmail shut downs occur. Even then though, I don’t know if it makes much of a difference. China’s most literate folks all know how to spell VPN.Feb 11
Matt S – I’ve got some 事情 as well, so quickly:
1) Agreed. Proud to be a card-carrying member of the blowhard class, myself (in writing, at least).
2) Agreed, agreed, and agreed (re: the three assertions made in the first two sentences).
3) All kinds of stuff wrong with this paragraph. Luckily, that just gives us something to hash out later 
Jimmy G – Wow, this is quite the thread. My sense is that gmail will not be blocked. It is used by too many people in China, and would actually have an impact on economic development as the free flow of information is critical to ensure vibrancy in the market. With gmail and google the greater challenge for the PRC gov is that everything on those platforms are exchanged via encrypted SSL, which can be a headache for law enforcement, ie tracking down dissidents. Now that SSL is default, this means the PSB will simply have to be more intrusive in their means of intelligence collection (installing spyware on host computers like green dam for example), which is no fun for them as security goons are inherently lazy.
My sense is that for Buzz, the government will probably first try to block it separately (not sure if this is possible), but will more likely use it to their advantage and (a) propagate it with the 五毛党 while (b) tracking the conversations made on buzz.
But then again we can’t rule out a major crackdown if buzz is used during a major social disturbance like we saw with Facebook in xinjiang 3:50 am
Damjan DeNoble - Jimmy, great point about Google Buzz’s potential to be used as a subversive force for China’s ‘dissidents’. I guess one of the questions is whether or not China sees the Google Buzz technology as separate from that of twitter and other social networks that have adopted micro blogging.
A great and timely article on China’s obsession with cyber monitoring as part of its larger military strategy:
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