Yesterday the China Daily published a story in which it was revealed that an estimated 80% of flu cases on the mainland are H1N1.

BEIJING: The A(H1N1) influenza was spreading rapidly across the country but it remained under control, an official with the Ministry of Health said here Sunday.

“Currently close to 80 percent of the country’s total flu infections are A(H1N1) flu cases, though the state of the flu was still mild and there was no evidence of virus mutation,” Liang said.

As of Saturday, more than 46,000 confirmed A/H1N1 flu cases had been reported on the Chinese mainland, 75 percent of whom had recovered. Among the 93 cases of serious condition, 55 were still in hospital, the ministry said. Chinese mainland has reported six deaths from the flu since October 2.

Ministry experts warned that the flu has entered a period featured by high frequency and quick increase in the number of infected cases in the country, and it could last through March next year.

I  want to take this opportunity to point out that I told you so way back in July when I said that H1N1 was being under reported in China and that the count would seemingly explode in the fall.  Like then, I still feel that the sudden phenomenon of H1N1 explosions in Southeast Asia and Russia is intimately linked to corruption in the public sector.

Important Implications:
1.) Current flu report statistics are very low compared to actual statistics. If China’s report rate as % of population was anywhere near that of the US, worldwide cases of swine flu would double.

2.) Expat parents in Asia should get ready for a flu heavy fall. If you are a parent, read this article in the NY Times warning US parents that flu infection is coming early this year, and take its advice to heart.

3.) Those who are already sick, old, and/or frail. Be careful when traveling to Asia.

4.) Asians love pork. While it’s true that you can’t get sick from cooked pork, try to stick to the cleanest restaurants if you plan to eat it. In developing regions spitting is common and washing hands is rare. So, it’s not the meat that will get you sick, but the cook and/or the butcher who prepared it.

5.) Anybody out there in the flu vaccine business? Be prepared to be out of stock sooner than planned.