Posted By Damjan DeNoble

I was fooling around with some numbers today and ran smack into a terrifically important statistical curiosity.

There is a strong correlation between a country’s ranking in the transparency index, which measures perceived levels of corruption within the country, and the number of swine flu cases that it has reported.  The big implication of this finding is that if you get sick this year in Asia, you will likely get sick from the swine flu – the mainland has low swine flu numbers, and is ripe with corruption.

Using figures from Nationmaster (a tremendously powerful online statistical tool) I found that in a sample of country’s from the Pacific rim, reported cases of H1N1 as a percentage of their populations (data current as of July 18, 2009) correlate almost exactly with the corruption ranking of each country relative to its neighbors.

The only exception is Thailand, but one obvious explanation is that the country boasts one of the world’s premiere private health systems.  I would not be surprised if reporting from Bangkok hospital giants like Bumrungrad, accounted for most of the country’s reported total of swine flu cases.

My suspicion as to the accuracy of reports coming from countries like China, Vietnam, and Russia was aroused after I saw the map below over at the flu tracker website.

Three things to notice:

1.) Countries like China, India, and Russia are surrounded by the flu on all sides, yet somehow they miraculously appear unscathed.  Common sense tells us that Russia and China have to be under-reporting their numbers.

2.) As should be expected due to many developmental factors, there are numerous information holes all over the world.  No one really believes that all of Africa has less than hundred cases of swine flu, but the reporting mechanisms simply are not there. Most African and Eurasian countries, with few exceptions, consistently rank at the bottom of the corruption (and development) rankings, and so it is not suprising that there appears to be a vast information hole in these regions.

3.) As to be expected, since the H1N1 flu is thought to have originated in Mexico, the greatest concentration of cases is in South and North America.  If the “corruption versus swine flu cases reported theory” is to hold any water, then we would expect that many countries in South America would have to rank near the bottom of the list when swine flu case reports are totaled up.  However, in this case, their proximity to Mexico, and the high rate of migration between South and North America justifies their rank near the top.

Important Implications:
1.) Current flu report statistics are very low compared to actual statistics.  If China’s report rate as % of population was anywhere near that of the US, worldwide cases of swine flu would double.

2.) Expat parents in Asia should get ready for a flu heavy fall.  If you are a parent, read this article in the NY Times warning US parents that flu infection is coming early this year, and take its advice to heart.

3.) Those who are already sick, old, and/or frail.  Be careful when traveling to Asia.

4.) Asians love pork.  While it’s true that you can’t get sick from cooked pork, try to stick to the cleanest restaurants if you plan to eat it.  In developing regions spitting is common and washing hands is rare.  So, it’s not the meat that will get you sick, but the cook and/or the butcher who prepared it.

5.) Anybody out there in the flu vaccine business? Be prepared to be out of stock sooner than planned.